Olathe, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Olathe KS
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Olathe KS
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO |
Updated: 12:13 pm CDT Jul 13, 2025 |
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This Afternoon
 Slight Chance Showers
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Tonight
 Mostly Clear then Patchy Fog
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Monday
 Patchy Fog then Sunny
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Monday Night
 Partly Cloudy
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Tuesday
 Mostly Sunny
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Tuesday Night
 Partly Cloudy then Chance T-storms
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Wednesday
 Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers
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Wednesday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Thursday
 Partly Sunny then Chance Showers
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Hi 85 °F |
Lo 69 °F |
Hi 90 °F |
Lo 70 °F |
Hi 90 °F |
Lo 73 °F |
Hi 92 °F |
Lo 70 °F |
Hi 86 °F |
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This Afternoon
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A slight chance of showers before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. North northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Tonight
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Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 69. East northeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. |
Monday
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Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. |
Monday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. South southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. |
Tuesday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. South wind 6 to 11 mph. |
Tuesday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Wednesday
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A chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Wednesday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Thursday
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A chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Thursday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Friday
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A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Friday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. |
Saturday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Olathe KS.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
542
FXUS63 KEAX 131106
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated to scattered showers and storms today, mainly south and
east of a Kansas City to Macon, MO line.
- Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any storm that
develops.
* Several additional chances for showers and storms this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows a positively
tilted shortwave trough from northern MO into TX and potentially a
closed low over northern OK. 00Z soundings from TOP, SGF, and OUN,
show precipitable water values of roughly 1.6" at TOP, 1.8" at SGF,
and 1.9 at OUN. At the surface, a weak front was stalled over the
area that appears to be oriented from central OK northeastward into
northeastern MO. Showers and a storms have developed in the vicinity
of this front. Even the low to mid-level circulation is notable on
the regional 0.5 degree reflectivity plot. This shortwave will
slowly track eastward through the day and as a result, we should see
an increase in coverage of the convection as the day progresses
and the boundary layer becomes more buoyant. With only about
1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and weak shear, the threat of
organized severe weather is nil. However, given the airmass,
water-loaded down drafts are possible. Additionally, locally
heavy rainfall can be expected in any shower or storm that
develops given the high precipitable water values, high freezing
levels, and slow movement. By late this afternoon into this
evening, it looks like the shortwave will be moving east of the
forecast and that should lead to a winding down the showers and
storms for our forecast area. With thick cloud cover today
associated with the showers and storms, temperatures will be
cooler than normal, especially for the southeastern half of the
forecast area.
We`ll see a lull in activity Monday as we temporarily have a drier
(for July) airmass over us. Things change Tuesday into Wednesday.
Models continue to show a mid-level shortwave moving northeastward
into the area from OK. However there is some variability in the
location and thus the location for potential heavy rainfall. The GFS
is further east, keeping the best rain chances south and east of the
area. The NAM is further west, stronger, and tracks the shortwave
right over the forecast area with heavy rain associated with the
wave. Most other models are weaker and closer in line to the
GFS. This leads to the NAM being an outlier for rain amounts
with this system with it showing pockets of 2-2.5 inches. While
some of the higher end ensemble members have backed off their
rain amounts for midweek, there are still some members in the
GEFS showing 24-hour totals of 2.5-3". While this is unlikely
to occur, it remains a small possibility so we`ll need to
continue to watch this system given the environmental
parameters. Ensemble guidance continues to show mean
precipitable water values of around 1.8" with the 75th
percentile near 2".
While temperatures look more seasonal Monday and Tuesday, highs may
climb into the low 90s across eastern KS and western MO on
Wednesday. And with increased humidity, heat index values will
climb to around 100 again. For late in the week, temperatures
return to more seasonal levels with highs in the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast for
eastern KS and western MO. These may bring brief MVFR ceilings
and visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through
the day with light winds. Tonight, as skies begin to clear from
the NW, could seem some valley fog affecting the STJ terminal.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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